Adobe Analytics forecasts Black Friday e-commerce sales between $8.8 billion and $9.6 billion, though the group says the pull of major shopping days is starting to fall.
Shoppers spent $5.1 billion on Thanksgiving Day, the low end of the expected range of $5.1 billion to $5.4 billion. Still, shoppers spent an average of $3.5 million per minute.
“In the midst of a holiday shopping season characterized by inflation, weaker discounts, and widespread product shortages, it’s noteworthy that U.S. online spending has already racked up over $75 billion to date in November,” said Taylor Schreiner, director at Adobe Digital Insights.
“However, even major shopping days like Thanksgiving Day are beginning to see their growth wane compared to previous years as consumers opt to open their wallets earlier and shop on their terms outside of the historically promoted, blockbuster sales days.”
See: The absolute best deals on Black Friday
Retailers have encouraged shoppers to tackle their wish lists early this year, with advanced Black Friday deals and other discounts launching earlier this month.
However, with the retail landscape in tumult, shoppers may find that the typical deep discounts are scarce. Adobe
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says toys, apparel, and computers were among the items with the deepest discounts on Black Friday.
“During our mall and off-mall store checks, we observed the lowest level of clearance goods in five years or more, which we believe is fueled by consumer demand, supply constraints, a new apparel and going-out cycle, and strong momentum for both gift giving and receiving,” wrote Cowen analysts in a Black Friday note.
Cowen forecasts holiday sales increases of up to 13% year-over-year due to the lower promotional levels.
“We believe earlier shopping is especially prudent for retailers given current inventory and supply chain headwinds that could drive delayed shipping deliveries if consumers wait until the last minute,” the note said.
“Additionally, the earliness also speaks to pent-up demand, in our view, as holiday social gatherings will likely be more normalized on improving COVID-19 restrictions this year.”
Also: Facing the biggest inflation surge in 30 years, shoppers expect to spend a lot more this holiday season
Edge by Ascential, a data and services provider to consumer companies and retailers, says it has seen a spike in searches for “ugly Christmas sweaters” as holiday parties make a comeback this year.
Even with the earlier shift in holiday shopping and supply-chain problems, shoppers are eager to spend.
“Consumers clearly got the memo about supply chain issues and have started their holiday shopping early,” said Rob Garf, vice president of retail at Salesforce
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in a statement.
“Despite higher prices and fewer discounts, …….
